Writings

Candidates cannot make their capabilities legible. Companies cannot make sense of what is legible. The problem is the same on both sides.

The base-rate lens is necessary, but it might be insufficient if you are underwriting a general-purpose technology.

If the implied growth is literally unobserved in the historical reference class, what probability should we assign before we see evidence?

What picking up a pencil taught me about attention, patience, and tolerating the ugly middle.

What Steve Martin's description of Johnny Carson reveals about power, timing, and how to hold space for someone else's vulnerability.

Most people search for answers when they would be better served by searching for questions.

How Costco's framing of labor costs reveals a deeper truth about measuring inputs.

A first post to test the waters and make sure everything works.

Using Nick Sleep's economies of scale shared lens to evaluate Ramp's business model — and testing whether the framework travels beyond retail.

A week in Paris changed how I think about beauty, architecture, and the way our environment shapes us.